I mentioned in passing the growing Touareg unrest in northern Niger, back in May (and the Head Heeb had the nuts and bolts of it). It seems now that it has evolved into a rather serious rebellion, which by necessity will come to involve Algeria, since it takes place right at its south-east border, and probably to some extent across it too. And there's also the connection to increasing trouble on Algeria's south-western border, with Mali.
[picture: algerian touareg]
Not that this is in any way, shape or form related to the Western Sahara question, but once this blog
started following Touareg affairs -- or at least keeping a lazy eye on them -- there's no stopping it. And it is significant, in one way: it is closely tied to the role Algeria is trying to carve out for itself as a Major Power of the western Sahara and Sahel states, something which in itself has implications for its relationship with Morocco and in Western Sahara, and with others who affect that issue, such as the US and France. Certainly, if Algeria gains leverage in a region that the US
attaches such great attention to, that will affect other aspects of its diplomacy (how is another matter).
Mali 2006: Pax Algeriana[picture: it's easy when you're big in kidal]
Last year,
remember, Algeria was involved in negotiating a peace agreement between Mali and its northern Touaregs, through what seemed like rather heavy-handed diplomacy. The final treaty
legalized the revolutionaries of the
Alliance démocratique du 23 mai pour changement as a sort of special-status commando units, supposed to act against "all foreign forces" in the borderlands where Algeria's
GSPC/
al-Qaida had been hiding out. That is, they were essentially, and
nota bene willingly, turned into an Algerian proxy. The strategy seems to have been reasonably successful: not only did it stop the nascent Kidali rebellion, Algeria has also been making headway against the al-Qaida units in the south, after the Touareg demonstrated their intent by
starting a couple of skirmishes with the Islamists. The southern GSPC front has long been run by its (in-)famous "emir",
Mokhtar Belmokhtar, and is perhaps more smuggling racket than al-Qaida venture. However, there are
recurring rumors about negotiations with Belmokhtar for his surrender under Bouteflika's amnesty deal, and one of his top liutenants
recently gave up his arms and came in from the cold.
El Khabar would have us believe that Belmokhtar himself has now also opted for the quiet life, but simultaneously
points to the messy tribal character of politics in the deep Sahara, with splinter groups among the Touareg rebels lining up against the state again, and, say some, with the GSPC. Led by one
Ibrahim Ag Bahanga, formerly a big shot in the
Alliance démocratique, and with support from the Touareg rebels in Niger, they have been
at odds with the central government and the treaty for some time. Now they have been joined by a top leader of the ex-rebellion in Mali:
Hassan Fagaga, the former lieutenant-colonel in the Malian army whose defection set off the
Alliance démocratique uprising, and who was supposed to head the "special commandoes" created to do Algeria's bidding in the borderlands. There is a real risk that the peace deal could break apart because of this, and
skirmishing has already started. The
Alliance démocratique mainstream, or whatever remains of it, has
disavowed any ties to the Niger uprising and asked Nigérien Touaregs to mind their own business, but confusion evidently reigns in the Malian Touareg ranks.
Niger 2007: The Atomic Touareg
In neighbouring Niger, a
Mouvement des nigériens pour la justice (MNJ) has been set up by Touareg malcontents to claim a bigger slice of the pie -- or the cake, perhaps. Northern Niger is doing well off yellowcake uranium extraction (yes,
that yellowcake), and the Touraeg do not feel they're getting their share. Armed rebellion is the only thing that seems to have worked for them in the past, due to the character of Nigérien politics, so that's what they're at again. After Bahanga's faction of the former
Alliance démocratique struck a pact with the MNJ, they seem hellbent on restarting the Kidali troubles, as an extension of the revolt in Niger.
[picture: poker face]

I
noted before that Algeria,
flying high on oil, gas and relative peace, has been aiming to cement its role as a regional power under Bouteflika. It could well be interested in strengthening its influence in Niger too, as a sort of reprise of the Malian deal -- and even if the GSPC is not as acute a problem there, they have been moving in the territories. Then again, there are more pressing problems at home to think of. However, even if it did not want to, Algeria may in fact be forced to involve itself: the lack of a real border between Mali's and Niger's Touareg groups means that the 2006 peace accords in Mali, and by extension Algeria's arrangements in its south-western border regions (and its political standing), could hinge on peace in Niger as well.
Don't push, there's bedouins for everybody[picture: count me in!]

To complicate things further, it is far from clear what exactly is going on in Niger. Apart from the usual social and economic grievances of the under-developed Touareg north, and
willy-nilly repression from their cleptocratic government, there have
been persistent accusations from the Nigérien rulers that French mining companies are somehow involved in stoking the uprising, to put pressure on the government in trade negotiations. (And of course, every rebel's best friend, the Dear Brother Leader Muammar al-Qadhafi, who recently
declared himself tribal chief of all Touaregs, had to get in on a corner as well: he is now
suing Nigérien newspapers for reporting his support of the uprising.
Sound familiar?)
Is this all just scapegoating or does it hold a grain of truth? Or both? Also, there's
the larger picture of global warming slowly
unraveling the pastoralist-farmer balance through the whole Sahel, and of arms, refugees and political chaos
drifting in all the way from Darfur, presently the black hole of the eastern Sahara.
All in all, as good a demonstration as any of how interlocked the conflicts of the Sahara are -- and then I haven't even mentioned Algeria's own Touareg minority -- which, some say, col. Qadhafi has
quietly been urging to form an independent state. If the fighting continues to heat up, and if Algeria isn't too busy working out
succession issues in its military-political hierarchy, expect increased involvement in both Mali and Niger, as those two conflicts are slowly merging into one. With important leaders of the former Touareg rebellion in Mali back fighting the state, partly, it seems, because what happened in Niger, Algeria's peace deal now seems all but dead unless order is restored quickly. It remains to see if the Touareg insurgents may draw the remaining Islamist militants in southern Algeria into their orbit; Algeria will certainly want to crack down to prevent that. But how, if the revolt in Niger continues to seep across the border with Mali?
To be continued, I'm sure.
[updated to include the defection of hassan fagaga]