Military coup in Mauritania
[picture: gen. mohammed ould abdelaziz, professional putschist]
Breaking:Mauritanian President Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi was being held under house arrest in the capital Nouakchott after the presidential guard rounded up the country's civilian leadership.Yeah, that would be General Mohammed ould Abdelaziz in action. Worst fears confirmed: I didn't imagine it would blow up like this, at least not this fast. It appears the president became desperate and tried to sack the generals, who, even more desperately, struck and seized power.
No point in commenting much, until the dust settles, except on three matters:
1. This blog has been tailing the crisis from the outset. No top level of analysis, perhaps, but it is, I believe, the only English-language blog online to have followed the matter [UPDATE: no but almost, see comments]. Click "mauritania" in the tags, or read the "earlier" links from right to left here.
2. Huge thanks to Hannes/HB in Mauritania, who has kept us updated throughout. Now please stay safe and indoors...
[picture: political debate, mauritania-style]
3. Quick analysis, which I may regret: a tragedy for Mauritanian democracy, on the one hand, but that didn't stand much of a chance anyway; but more importantly, a giant setback for the country's broader chances of political development. While President Abdellahi and his cronies aren't exactly angels, Generals Ghazouani and Abdelaziz represent the very worst military-parasitic element of the Mauritanian regime, and their refusal to let the civilian side of the regime settle down in power threatens to undo it completely in the long run. If the last coup, in August 2005, could be met with cautious understanding by the international community, having unseated President ould el-Tayaa, and eventually with praise as it led to a real transformation, this time around it is different. What happened in 2005 was that a military-personal-tribal dictatorship was overthrown and the chance arrived to replace it with a civilian semi-authoritarian structure that respected most democratic norms most of the time, and which made sensible moves towards national reconciliation, refugee return and economic development; not heaven, but infinitely better. This change is now being reversed. The putschists -- even though they are some of the same people as acted in 2005 -- must be condemned and the result of the coup overturned if possible; Mauritania had a golden opportunity to break its vicious circle, and it is now slipping away.4. [UPDATE] Seems a
5. [UPDATE] Former Prime Minister ould Zeidane said to have been touring Western Europe (yes, France) on behalf of the military since last week. Was Paris in on it? Not unlikely at all, although this is hardly a smoking gun. The lame protests from Le Quai d'Orsay may be, however, saying it's "too early" to analyze the situation and mumbling a generally worded condemnation of military takeovers, without noting that this is one.
6. [UPDATE] Political forces seem to be reacting slowly, with one major exception: UFP, the leftist opposition party briefly in government (until the military forced its resignation), is going all-in with strongly worded statements condemning the coup, which they had been warning was in the making. Well, they've been mostly banned and underground since the 1960s, so I guess everything's really just back to normal.
7. [UPDATE] Nouri has great coverage on The Moor Next Door:
I am also told, by the same source, that after Sidi [tried to] sack Chief of Staff Ghazouani, the new CoS (Col. Mohamed Mahmoud Ould Ismail) showed up at Army HQ and informed the guard that he was the Chief of Staff. The guard responded with “tiyer” or “fuck off.” (Moor here.)8. [UPDATE] World not too pleased. Strong initial stance from the EU against the coup, even angrier from the USA. And when you show up on Nigeria's blacklist, you know you've sunk pretty low:
"Nigeria totally condemns the event that took place today in Mauritania. Nigeria will not recognise any government that did not come to power through constitutional means," President Umaru Yar'Adua told reporters.9. [UPDATE] But what of the neighbours? Senegal, nothing. Morocco, nothing. Algeria, nothing. Polisario/SADR, nothing. Why? Because they're waiting to figure out who is in charge, and who will win, and what the others are up to.
15 comments:
I followed the crisis from the beginning, but superior coverage here allowed me to focus on other developments. I will boast, though, that thought there would be a coup in April, after the gun battle in the capitol. I've kind of tapping my feet waiting for this...
Right you did, and you put up that super government-by-tribe Excel sheet too. I stand corrected and a tad bit embarrassed.
I'm a bit surprised there hasn't been much conspiracy-theory about links between the Islamist attacks and chase, on the one hand, and the colonels' power struggle, on the other hand. This after the Algerian model, of course. Perhaps they'd need a similarly dirty civil war for that -- God forbid -- but one would think that at least some inspiration should seep in from the northeast.
You and TMND seem to have fairly different takes on the coup - you clearly think Abdellahi was preferable despite his faults while TMND seems to think Abdellahi had gone power mad and brought it on himself by bringing back Taya regime figures. What is it that makes you think that Abdel Aziz represents the very worst military-parasitic element of the Mauritanian regime"? I've heard it said that he was the real power behind Vall, who brought in elections etc and didn't seem to have long-term ambitions to rule himself. How do you see it?
I think that in Mauritania civilian rule is preferable to military rule, that's really the thing. That neither is going to be uncorrupted or very democratic, well, so be it -- but if Mauritania is to have any chance to evolve successfully from the shithole they're in, they need to avoid the sort of trap Algeria has slid into, with an oil-fed military elite lurking behind the scenes and undermining all normal political activity in favor of conspiracy and family ties. Mauritania's chance of normalization lies in letting Abdellahi do his thing, then hold elections sooner or later, and vote him out so as to regularize politics and make non-military powers and civil society activism count. Today the malaise runs so deep, nobody plays according to any sort of rules, and everything is locked up with military and business clans. (Of course if one side was more into serious economic and anti-corruption reforms and such, that would be important, but from where I'm sitting I can't tell if there's any relevant difference there. I highly doubt it.)
That said, TMND is obviously right in that Abdellahi made more enemies than he could handle, and even apart from that, he was also tainted with lots of ties to corrupted figures. But perhaps that's what was needed: a regime insider to stabilize the transition and avoid getting stuck in the military clan game. Well, if so, he failed.
And you, what's your take on this?
Well like you I'm not generally in favour of military coups and think it's a shame democracy was so short-lived. I'm just curious to what sort of person Abdelaziz is and what his intentions are.
http://africapolicyforum.blogspot.com/
"I'm a bit surprised there hasn't been much conspiracy-theory about links between the Islamist attacks and chase, on the one hand, and the colonels' power struggle, on the other hand."
But what, exactly? Are you possibly tying this to military claims that the government was inept at mitigating terrorism? If that's the case, they've definitely been taking a page from the Algeria handbook.
brian -- Well, inept they were. But I was more thinking that opposition circles and outside observers might accuse one or both of the parties of complicity in terrorist acts, to create tension or embarrass the other side or something like that. I don't know, just a thought.
Well, I guess it was good while it lasted. I'm with you on this: civilian rule, even if corrupt, is preferable to the development of a permanent praetorian caste.
I haven't been following this as much as I should, but two things immediately occurred to me: what effect will this have on the returning 1989 refugees, and has Vall weighed in?
Pace Brian's comment, I think a lot of people are attempting to take pages from Algeria; Sidi's maneuvers around the Cols. and the Cols. attitude of his presidency are reminiscent, to me, of Bouteflika's mostly successful behavior towards the Generals and the General's behavior as you're mentioning, respectively. I don't know how intentional it is, and it may not be the case at all, but it is possible.
Jonathan -- Refugees, no clue. There is a program set up and running, as I understand it, so theoretically it could just go on. I don't see why this needs to change anything, although refugees may get understandably reluctant to move back, and staffing changes could perhaps bring back people who have an interest in preventing it. But if I'm not mistaken, Vall, Abdelaziz and the lot of them are knee-deep in blood from 1989 anyway, so if it worked before, this shouldn't change things.
As for Vall, haven't heard anything. I think he's thoroughly out of the picture now, having left the army, doing business and not politics, and probably thanking his lucky star for that. But who knows.
"But I was more thinking that opposition circles and outside observers might accuse one or both of the parties of complicity in terrorist acts, to create tension or embarrass the other side or something like that."
That's exactly what I thought you were implying, alle. It's certainly interesting.
"Sidi's maneuvers around the Cols. and the Cols. attitude of his presidency are reminiscent, to me, of Bouteflika's mostly successful behavior towards the Generals and the General's behavior as you're mentioning, respectively. I don't know how intentional it is, and it may not be the case at all, but it is possible."
Well of course. There's nothing intrinsically *Algerian* about these power struggles; they merely resemble the Algerian arrangement (and indeed, those of other nations).
Vall is in Ireland, learning English.
What? That's today's single weirdest piece of news.
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